Choosing Hope Over War

Did you listen Sunday to all the whining about the Iran deal?  My God, it lets them have ballistic missiles (after 10 years).  They will get lots of money to carry on their terrorist activities (unless the political pressure at home that was the catalyst for this deal has much of the money spent internally).  In 10 or 15 years they could then build a bomb.  Yeah, but with no agreement, they can do it today.  What about all the other issues we have with Iran, like their holding of Americans and political prisoners?

This criticism is going on in a vacuum of what the talks really were, a UN sactioned treaty about nuclear weapons with five other nations playing, most importantly Russia and China.  The discussion in this country carries on a fantasy that we controlled all the cards and more importantly, we can just reject this thing and go back to sanctions.  Neither one is true.  Raising the political prisoners card opens the door to taking more political prisoners for political pawns.  Why encourage that?  Assuming Iran is going to completely capitulate is naive at best.  They have their own political problems*.

Let’s just examine the biggest fantasy, that we can just walk away.  The UN won’t.  What that means is that the U.S. sanctions will remain in place, but the rest of the world will start buying their oil and selling them weapons (read China and Russia).  And of course the Europeans will jump in there if they see money making opportunities.  So the Great Satan stands alone and tries to inflict pain on the only country in the Middle East that really does have a well educated population that yearns for things Western and are critical to solving Iraq and Syria.

And take a gander at who is against it.  All the smart people that got us into a war in Iraq.  And as I have opined before, every Republican on the planet because they hope to sully the President in 2016.  I really dispair watching Democrats pick this thing apart to sooth their Jewish constituency.  This is what is best for America and the world, not your right wing Jewish friends who fund your campaigns. And of course there are our good friends the Saudis whose human rights record is close to eclipsing Atilla the Hun’s.  Oh, and don’t forget the hardliners in Iran.  Think about it:  Our Neocons and the hardliners in Iran are on the same page.

I guess the part that is most frustrating about this “debate” is that it is a no-brainer.  Hope or war.  That’s it.  To turn this down, starts the country down the road to war with Iran, and this will be no minor war.  The whole Middle East will erupt in a free for all.  So do the cost benefit analysis.  What have you lost if you enter into this agreement.  Sure Iran can use some of the money to continue supporting terrorist and disruptive activities in the Middle East.  We can block that and deal with it directly. They can eventually build a weapon**, but they can now, so?

What we gain is real hope.  First, we prevent a weapon being built and reduce their capacity to do so later. Second, we open up other anvenues of dialogue with the only country in the Middle East capable of helping us in Syria and Iraq.  Third, as Iran modernizes, they too will have to deal with an educated population that wants to engage with the West.  So sure they could violate the agreement.  Sure they can eventually build a weapon** if they choose.  But if they do we are back to where we are now with the choice of military action.  But we gain a chance to change the world and especially the dynamics in the Middle East.  How could you not go for it?

*Note:  Americans are one egocentric bunch.  We like to image the bad guys as, well, the bad guys, but think about this from Iran’s perspective.  First, they know oil is a limited resource and the day will come when you have to move on. Second, nuclear eneregy is their best option and they have their own uranium.  Next consider the world around them.  BeBe wants to nuke them for spitting on the sidewalk.  The Sunnis hate the Shiites and we are arming the Sunni capital of the world, Saudi Arabia.  They understand the threat of ISIS and are the only (beside the Kurds) effective force in fighting them.  And of course you have the United States singing songs like, Bomb, Bomb, Iran.  Would you not be looking to secure your future with weapons?

**Note:  Do you remember MAD, Mutual Assured Destruction which was our strategy for keeping the Russians at bay?  If Iran built a weapon and used it, we would know in an instant and we have enough weapons to destroy Iran 10,000 times over.  If it gets to that, Iran builds a weapon, to use it would be suicide.  What we really ought to be worrying about is North Korea.

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